November’s Market Moves: A Clear Look at Key Trends

November appeared steady at first glance, but the month revealed a more layered economic and market picture. U.S. equities hovered near record highs before easing, influenced by shifting expectations on rate cuts, evolving AI dynamics, and fewer government data releases during the shutdown.

AI, Tech Rotation, and Shifting Equity Trends

Major U.S. stock indices reflected mixed performance as AI enthusiasm met earnings realities and profit-taking emerged in stretched tech names. The S&P 500 edged up 0.13%, the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.64%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.32%. Sector rotation and moves in dominant AI and mega-cap technology companies shaped much of the month’s tone.

Inflation Signals and Labor Market Uncertainty

The absence of October’s Consumer Price Index and household survey left investors and policymakers navigating without clarity on recent inflation or unemployment trends. A combined October–November payrolls report and updated unemployment rate—scheduled for mid-December—will carry greater importance for the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Fed Messaging and Rate Expectations

With official data limited, Federal Reserve commentary guided market expectations. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted that the October rate cut brought policy closer to neutral, while Governor Christopher Waller supported another cut in December. However, late-October FOMC minutes showed a divided Fed, with several officials preferring to hold rates unless growth weakens.

Housing Market Conditions and Regional Divergence

Existing-home sales held at a 4.1 million annual pace in October, with median home prices rising modestly year-over-year. National price measures increased 2.2% in Q3 before leveling off, and regional differences grew sharper. While some Northeast markets posted gains, places like Florida and D.C. saw declines. Sellers responded with more delistings and price cuts as buyers regained leverage.

What’s Ahead

November’s mixed signals underscored the importance of staying centered on long-term strategy. With the Fed easing but signaling uncertainty, and AI-driven productivity trends shaping corporate outlooks, upcoming data releases and the Fed’s December 10th decision will serve as timely reference points.

As year-end approaches, we recommend staying diversified, managing risk thoughtfully, and keeping an eye on economic checkpoints. For personalized guidance or support, our financial team is here to help.